FixKit AI

Learn with Kit / Investing

AI for investing

Kit is holding a magnifying glass and squinting at a chart. Kit is skeptical. Good.

Make AI your skeptic, not your hype man

  1. Ask AI to break the strategy, not sell it

    I've had AI test trading systems against random entries. Most "edges" vanished. The win wasn't a strategy โ€” it was learning to ask: would a coin flip have done just as well?

  2. Watch for hidden losses

    Some systems show a near-perfect win rate while losing trades sit open and unrealized. AI is great at reading the fine print in a track record and asking where the drawdown went.

  3. Build a sparring partner from the people you follow

    I turn a thinker I follow into an AI persona that answers in their framework โ€” then argue with it. It's the fastest way I've found to understand a macro view, and to find its holes.

  4. Simple rules beat feelings

    A trend rule you can write in one sentence (like a 50-day vs 150-day line) is something AI can track for you every day without emotion. It's a signal for research, not a buy button.

Your one-minute AI challenge

Open any AI assistant (Grok Bot, Claude, ChatGPT, Grok or Gemini) and paste this. Fill in the [brackets].

Here's an investing strategy someone is selling: [describe it]. Act as a skeptical analyst: what would have to be true for it to work, how would I test it against random chance, what fees or hidden losses could hide in the results, and what questions should I ask before trusting it?

Fix-it-yourself guides for this

Research a condition or treatment, with sources

I just got a diagnosis and want to understand it without doom-scrolling.

5 tools ยท 3-step recipe ยท copy-ready prompt

The full guide

This guide walks regular people through investing: the simple basics that beat most fancy strategies, how to test anything someone tries to sell you, the traps inside trading robots and tip services, and how to read the big-picture economy without letting it scare you. AI won't pick winners for you (nothing can). What it can do is read a 100-page company report in a minute, argue the other side of your idea, and help you check whether a sales pitch holds up. Think of AI as a careful research buddy, never as the one who tells you what to buy. New to AI assistants? Start with Your AI toolkit (fixkitai.com/learn/ai/).

๐Ÿ‘ต New to this? Start here

  1. Find out what you already own and what you pay: look up the expense ratio of each fund in your 401(k), IRA or brokerage account.
  2. Learn what a low-cost index fund is (for example an S&P 500 or total-market fund) so you have a simple baseline to compare everything else against.
  3. Before trusting anyone with money advice, look them up free on FINRA BrokerCheck or the SEC's adviser search.
  4. Treat any 'guaranteed' return, profit-sharing trading bot or countdown-timer offer as a red flag until proven otherwise.
  5. Use AI to explain things and argue both sides, never to tell you what to buy, and check its facts against the original document.

๐ŸŽฌ Real-life scenarios

Real situations โ€” many from my own life, names removed โ€” showing exactly what was asked and which AI did what.

Coin-flip testing a trading bot he'd already paid for

๐Ÿ‘ค A dad of three who works as a specialty-pharmacy executive

The problem: He had bought into a trading bot that showed a near-perfect win rate. Before adding more money, he wanted to know if the bot had any real skill or just good marketing.

  1. Downloaded the bot's full trade history from his broker as a spreadsheet file (with account numbers removed).
  2. Asked Claude: 'Explain the difference between balance and equity in this report, and add up the losses in trades that are still open.'
  3. Asked Claude to write a small program that picks 100 sets of random entry times using the bot's same exit rules and the same costs.
  4. Compared the bot's real results to the 100 random runs, splitting the history into an early half and a late half.
  5. Had a second AI (Grok) review the test design and try to poke holes in it before he trusted the answer.

What happened: The bot landed right in the middle of the random runs in both halves, so its 'signal' added nothing. Its closed trades looked like about 99% winners, but open losing trades were hiding a drop several times bigger than the visible profit. After fees, he was behind. He stopped adding money.

ClaudeGrokSpreadsheetBroker trade export

๐Ÿ’ก If a system can't beat random picks after costs, the profits came from luck or hidden risk, not skill.

A weekly macro brief built from favorite YouTube creators

๐Ÿ‘ค A busy dad who follows a dozen market and economy channels but can't watch 15 hours of video a week

The problem: He kept falling behind on the creators he trusts and only heard the loudest headlines. He wanted one short weekly summary showing where they agreed and disagreed.

  1. Kept a simple list of 10 channels in a spreadsheet (for example macro, liquidity and options educators).
  2. Each weekend, had a research bot collect the transcripts of new videos from those channels.
  3. Asked Claude: 'Summarize each video in 3 bullets with the channel name, date and a link to the exact minute. Then list where these creators agree, where they disagree, and any dated predictions.'
  4. Asked a second AI to act as a skeptic and point out claims with no evidence.
  5. Had the finished one-page brief emailed to himself Sunday night and read it on his phone.

What happened: About 15 hours of video became a 10-minute read. Every point linked back to the moment in the video it came from, so he could check it. He noticed that two 'different' creators were really making the same bet on interest rates.

ClaudeGrokYouTubeSpreadsheetEmailPhone

๐Ÿ’ก Let AI do the watching and sorting, but insist that every claim links back to its source.

Arguing with an AI version of a macro thinker

๐Ÿ‘ค A self-taught investor who follows one well-known economy commentator closely

The problem: He found himself agreeing with everything the commentator said. He wanted someone to push back, and to understand the commentator's thinking well enough to spot when it didn't apply.

  1. Collected 15 of the commentator's public videos and essays, each with a date.
  2. Asked Claude to summarize the commentator's framework in 10 bullets, citing the dated source for each.
  3. Saved that summary as a 'persona' and told the AI: 'Answer as an emulation of this framework, not the real person. Cite the source for every point. If the sources don't cover it, say so. No buy or sell advice.'
  4. Built a second persona from a well-known skeptic's public work and had the two debate his idea.
  5. Asked a final question: 'What one fact, with a date, would settle this debate?'

What happened: The debate surfaced two risks he had never considered, and the AI said 'not covered' on three questions instead of making things up. He wrote down one dated checkpoint to watch rather than acting on a hunch.

ClaudeChatGPTNotes app

๐Ÿ’ก A persona built only from cited public sources is a sparring partner, not an oracle. Build an opposite one too.

A trend-signal dashboard instead of checking prices all day

๐Ÿ‘ค A family that runs a small home office and tracks a few funds and bitcoin

The problem: Checking prices many times a day was stressful and led to snap decisions. They wanted one calm screen that showed where things stand, using simple, pre-written rules.

  1. Wrote the rules in plain words first: 'above the 50-day average = trend up; below the 150-day average = warning.'
  2. Asked Claude (in a coding assistant) to build a small dashboard page that pulls free daily closing prices and draws those two lines.
  3. Added one table that ranks the 11 big stock-market sectors by how much they moved in the last 13 weeks.
  4. Had the AI label the page 'research signal only, not advice' and show 'not enough history' instead of guessing when data was missing.
  5. Opened it once a day on the computer or phone instead of watching live prices.

What happened: Price-checking dropped from dozens of times a day to once. When the warning light came on, they checked their written plan before doing anything. Looking back, the rule gave several false alarms in choppy months, which they now expect.

ClaudeCoding assistantFree price dataWeb browserPhone

๐Ÿ’ก Write the rule before you look at the chart, and treat the signal as a warning light, not an order.

Reading a 10-K with AI before buying a single stock

๐Ÿ‘ค A retired teacher curious about a company whose products she uses every day

The problem: She liked the company but had never read its annual report. The 10-K was over 100 pages and full of legal language.

  1. Searched the company name plus '10-K' and opened it on the SEC's free EDGAR website.
  2. Copied the 'Risk Factors' section from this year and last year into Claude.
  3. Asked: 'List what's new, what was removed and what got more serious. Quote the section for each point. No opinion on the stock.'
  4. Asked a follow-up: 'Explain the three biggest risks like I'm 75 and new to this.'
  5. Checked two of the AI's quotes against the real document to make sure they were exact.

What happened: In about 20 minutes she learned about a new lawsuit and a big customer the company depends on. Both quotes she checked were accurate. She decided to wait until after the next earnings report and wrote down what she would look for.

ClaudeSEC EDGARWeb browser

๐Ÿ’ก AI makes a 100-page report readable, but always spot-check its quotes against the real document.

Learning options on paper before risking a dollar

๐Ÿ‘ค A 60-year-old who kept seeing 'options income' videos and wanted to understand them

The problem: The videos made selling options look like free money. He wanted to learn how it really works without losing savings.

  1. Read the Options Industry Council's free 'What is an option?' page and watched a manual-trading teacher's beginner series.
  2. Turned on his broker's paper-trading (practice money) account.
  3. Before each practice trade, asked Claude: 'Give me max profit, max loss, break-even, and what happens if I'm assigned. Educational only.'
  4. Kept a simple log in a spreadsheet: what he expected, what happened, and what surprised him.
  5. After three months, asked the AI to read his log and list his three most common mistakes.

What happened: Over 30 practice trades, his pretend account ended roughly flat. Two trades would have cost him real money because he forgot about assignment. He decided he wasn't ready to trade real money yet and kept practicing.

ClaudeBroker paper-trading accountSpreadsheetYouTube

๐Ÿ’ก Practice money is cheap tuition. If you can't explain your worst case, you're not ready.

A 'chief of staff' AI that manages a team of research bots

๐Ÿ‘ค A dad of three who runs his family's money like a small office

The problem: He had separate AI helpers for finance notes, market research, social media and news, and it was too much to keep up with. He wanted one weekly report and only the real decisions sent to him.

  1. Set up one 'chief of staff' AI whose only job is to collect reports from the other bots.
  2. Gave each helper bot a narrow lane: the finance bot reads account summaries (read-only), the research bot builds the weekly macro brief, the news bot watches for alerts.
  3. Told every bot the same rule: 'Report facts with sources. Never place trades or move money. Flag anything that needs a human.'
  4. Each Sunday, the chief of staff writes a one-page summary: what changed, what needs a decision, what can wait.
  5. He reads it on his phone and replies with decisions in plain words.

What happened: Time spent sorting through bots dropped from several hours a week to about 20 minutes. Twice the chief of staff flagged that two bots disagreed, which was exactly where he needed to look. No bot was ever allowed to touch money.

ClaudeGrokSeveral helper botsEmailPhone

๐Ÿ’ก Several AIs work best with one manager, clear lanes, and a hard rule that only a human moves money.

Asking investing questions by voice in the car, then following up at the desk

๐Ÿ‘ค A commuting dad who listens to market podcasts on the drive

The problem: Questions popped into his head while driving, and he forgot them by the time he got home.

  1. Asked Grok by voice in the car: 'What does it mean when a fund's yield is mostly return of capital?'
  2. Said: 'Save that question and your answer to my notes.'
  3. At home, opened the same Grok chat on his computer and pasted in the fund's real fact sheet.
  4. Asked Claude the same question with the fact sheet to compare the two answers.
  5. Wrote one line in his investing journal about what he learned.

What happened: The questions no longer got lost. The two AIs mostly agreed, but one gave a tax detail the other didn't, so he added it to his list of questions for his CPA instead of trusting either one.

Grok (voice in car)Grok (phone and computer)ClaudeNotes app

๐Ÿ’ก Voice is great for capturing questions; check the answers at a desk with the real documents.

Finding hidden fees in a 401(k) in one evening

๐Ÿ‘ค A 58-year-old nurse who had never looked closely at her retirement plan

The problem: She had money in four funds and no idea what they cost each year.

  1. Logged into her 401(k) website herself and downloaded the fund fee page.
  2. Pasted it into ChatGPT and asked: 'For each fund, tell me the expense ratio and what it would cost per year on a made-up $10,000. No advice on what to pick.'
  3. Checked the math with the Investor.gov compound interest calculator.
  4. Wrote down two questions for the plan's free advisor line.

What happened: One of her four funds cost about 10 times more per year than the plan's index fund option. She brought the comparison to the plan's advisor line to understand the difference before changing anything.

ChatGPTInvestor.gov calculator401(k) website

๐Ÿ’ก Fees are the easiest thing to check and the one thing you fully control.

Checking a new 'advisor' before handing over savings

๐Ÿ‘ค A retired couple approached at a free-dinner seminar

The problem: A friendly presenter offered to 'guarantee 12% a year' if they moved their savings that week.

  1. Typed the presenter's name and firm into FINRA BrokerCheck and the SEC's adviser search.
  2. Asked Claude: 'Here is the brochure. List every claim, and tell me which ones a registered advisor is not allowed to promise.'
  3. Asked the AI for questions to ask: how he gets paid, whether he's a fiduciary, and who holds the money.
  4. Called their state securities regulator using the contact list on NASAA's website.

What happened: BrokerCheck showed customer complaints, and the 'guarantee' was a red flag the AI pointed straight to. They didn't move anything and reported the seminar to their state regulator.

ClaudeFINRA BrokerCheckSEC adviser searchNASAA regulator list

๐Ÿ’ก A guarantee plus a deadline is the classic combination. Look people up before you listen to the pitch.

A family 'operating system' that shows every account in one place, read-only

๐Ÿ‘ค A dad of three who wanted his whole family's finances visible on one screen

The problem: Accounts were spread across several banks, a brokerage, retirement plans and paper statements. Nobody could see the big picture, and renewal dates kept sneaking up.

  1. Built a private family dashboard app with a coding AI (Claude) that only READS account data and can never move money.
  2. Set a document scanner to drop every statement into a folder that the app files and labels.
  3. Asked the AI to add a renewals calendar and a tax-organizer packet that gathers documents for the CPA.
  4. Each month, asked the AI: 'Across all accounts, what are my total fees, my biggest single holding, and anything I own twice in different funds?'

What happened: The first check found the same big companies held in three different funds, so the family was less spread out than they thought. They took that to their advisor rather than acting alone. Year-end paperwork for the CPA took an afternoon instead of weeks.

Claude (coding assistant)Document scannerSpreadsheetCalendarEmail

๐Ÿ’ก Seeing everything in one read-only place catches overlaps and fees no single statement shows.

Looking past the yield on a covered-call income fund

๐Ÿ‘ค A retiree who saw a fund advertising a double-digit monthly payout

The problem: The payout looked much higher than her bank account paid, and a video called it 'safe income.'

  1. Downloaded the fund's fact sheet and its distribution notices (the forms showing where each payout came from).
  2. Asked Claude: 'Separate the yield from the total return, and tell me what share of recent payouts the fund itself labels return of capital. No advice.'
  3. Asked: 'Show me with made-up numbers what happens to this kind of fund if the market jumps 20% or drops 20%.'
  4. Compared the fund's total return with a plain index fund over the same years on both funds' own websites.

What happened: She saw that part of the payout was her own money coming back, and that the fund missed much of the upside in strong years. She decided to ask a fee-only advisor how it would fit before buying anything.

ClaudeFund websitesSpreadsheet

๐Ÿ’ก A big payout isn't the same as a big return. Look at total return through good and bad years.

Stripping the hype out of a trading webinar

๐Ÿ‘ค A small-business owner invited to a 'free masterclass' on trading

The problem: The webinar ended with a pricey course, a countdown timer and dozens of testimonials.

  1. Saved the webinar transcript (many video sites offer one).
  2. Asked Claude: 'Remove all testimonials and urgency. Write the actual rules in five bullets. Are these rules taught free elsewhere? List the pressure tactics.'
  3. Asked Grok to search for free public explanations of the same rules.
  4. Asked Claude to turn the rules into a simple trend dashboard he could use himself.

What happened: The 'secret method' boiled down to a basic moving-average trend rule taught free in many places. He skipped the course and spent an hour building a free version, labeled 'research only.'

ClaudeGrokVideo transcript

๐Ÿ’ก The countdown timer is usually the product. The rules are often free.

The basics that beat most strategies

Before anything fancy, know the four things that quietly decide most people's results: how much you pay in fees, how many different things you own, how long you stay invested, and whether you panic and sell. None of these need a secret system.

Index funds: owning the whole haystack

An index fund lets you own a tiny piece of hundreds of companies at once, for a small yearly fee.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Maria puts $1,000 into an S&P 500 index fund, which owns about 500 big US companies. Well-known examples are Vanguard's VOO, State Street's SPY and iShares' IVV, and total-market funds such as Vanguard's VTI hold thousands of companies. (These are examples, not recommendations.) If those companies together grow 8% in a year, her $1,000 becomes about $1,080, minus a small fee. She never had to guess which company would win.

An index fund buys every stock in a market index, like the whole S&P 500, instead of trying to pick the winners. You get the market's return, minus a small fee. Over long periods, many actively picked funds fail to beat their own index after fees. That's why index funds are the starting point most investor-education sites point to.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to explain what's inside a specific index fund (which index, how many companies, how much in the top 10) using the fund's own fact sheet you paste in. New to pasting documents into an AI? See Your AI toolkit (fixkitai.com/learn/ai/).

โœ… Your first step: Look up one S&P 500 fund (for example VOO) on its maker's website and find the line that says 'expense ratio.'

Try this prompt
I'm pasting a fund fact sheet below. In plain English, tell me: (1) what index it tracks, (2) its expense ratio, (3) how concentrated it is in its top 10 holdings, (4) anything unusual. Do not tell me whether to buy it or give personal investment advice. Stop after those four points. [paste fact sheet]

Investor.gov: Index fund โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Mutual funds and ETFs โ†—

Costs decide more than you think

Fees come out every year whether you win or lose, so small fees add up to big money over time.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Sam and Jean each put $10,000 away for 30 years and both earn a made-up 6% a year before fees. Sam's fund charges 0.05% a year; Jean's charges 1%. At the end, Sam has roughly $56,000 and Jean roughly $43,000. The only difference was the fee.

A 1% yearly fee sounds tiny, but it comes out every year, win or lose, and that loss keeps growing over the years because the money taken out can't grow for you. When I tested trading systems in detail, the lesson that kept coming back was simple: costs decided the outcome. Strategies that looked fine before fees were losers after them. Look for the expense ratio (the fund's yearly fee), sales loads (a sales commission), 12b-1 fees (a marketing fee), trading commissions, and the spread (the small gap between the buying and selling price).

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can turn a fee table into a dollar picture: 'what does this fee cost over 20 years on a made-up $10,000?' Check its math with the free Investor.gov calculator.

โœ… Your first step: Open the Investor.gov compound interest calculator and run the same amount twice, once with a 1% lower return, to see what a 1% fee does.

Try this prompt
Using a hypothetical $10,000 and a hypothetical 6% yearly return, show how much a fund with a [X]% fee would be worth after 10, 20 and 30 years compared to one with a [Y]% fee. Show the formula you used. This is a math illustration only, not advice. Stop after the table.

Investor.gov: Expense ratio โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Compound interest calculator โ†— ยท Investor.gov: 12b-1 fees โ†—

Diversification: don't let one thing sink you

Diversification means not putting all your eggs in one basket.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Tom puts all $5,000 into his favorite company's stock, and a bad year cuts it in half to $2,500. His sister Ann splits $5,000 across an index fund that holds hundreds of companies. That same bad company is a tiny slice of her fund, so her total barely notices.

Diversification means spreading money across many companies, industries and types of assets so one bad bet doesn't wreck you. Watch for fake diversification: owning ten different stocks that all depend on the same thing (like low interest rates) is closer to one bet than ten. Asset allocation is the bigger split, like how much is in stocks versus bonds versus cash.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Paste your list of holdings (no account numbers) and ask AI what they have in common: same industry, same country, same sensitivity to interest rates.

โœ… Your first step: Write down every investment you own by name and put a star next to any single company that is more than one-tenth of the total.

Try this prompt
Here is a list of investments by name only: [list]. Group them by what drives them (industry, interest rates, commodity prices, consumer spending). Point out any places where several holdings are really the same bet. Do not recommend buying or selling anything. Stop after the grouping and a 3-sentence summary.

Investor.gov: Diversification โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Asset allocation โ†—

Time and steady habits

Putting in money on a regular schedule and leaving it alone for years usually works better than trying to guess the perfect time.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Rosa sets up an automatic $100 a month into an index fund. When prices drop, her $100 buys more shares; when prices rise, it buys fewer. After a scary 20% drop, she does nothing, because her written plan says 'don't sell in a panic.' Years later, the shares she bought cheaply in the dip are often the ones that helped most.

Compounding means your gains start earning their own gains, and it needs years to work. Dollar-cost averaging, putting in a set amount on a schedule, takes the guessing out of timing. Rebalancing, meaning nudging your mix back to your plan once in a while, keeps one part from growing too big. The biggest enemy is usually selling in a panic after a drop.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can help you write a one-page 'investing policy' in your own words so that when markets drop, you follow your plan instead of your nerves.

โœ… Your first step: Write one sentence on a sticky note: 'If the market drops 30%, I will ___,' and put it where you keep your account logins.

Try this prompt
Help me write a one-page personal investing plan in plain language. Ask me 6 questions first (goals, timeline, how I'd feel about a 30% drop, how often I'll add money, when I'll rebalance, who I'll call before making big changes). Then draft the page from my answers. Do not suggest specific investments or give personal financial advice. Stop after the draft.

Investor.gov: Compound interest โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Dollar-cost averaging โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Asset allocation and diversification โ†—

How to evaluate any strategy or signal seller

Everyone selling a system shows you their wins. These simple checks help you find out whether there's real skill behind it, or just luck, hidden losses and fees.

The coin-flip test: does it beat luck?

The coin-flip test asks: would random guesses have done just as well as this 'secret system'?

๐Ÿ“– Example

A seller says his signal made $10,000 last year. Bill tests it by letting a computer pick 100 random entry days using the same exit rules and the same costs. If the random picks average about $10,000 too, the signal added nothing; the profit came from the rules, not from any skill.

Ask: would random choices have done just as well? I ran this test on a trading system by comparing its real entries to thousands of randomly timed entries using the same rules for exits. The real results landed right in the middle of the random ones, which means the 'signal' had no edge at all. The profits came from how the trades were closed, not from any skill in picking when to start them. If a seller can't show their method beats random, assume it doesn't.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can help you design a simple random-entry comparison in a spreadsheet or Python, and explain what the result means, without needing to be a statistician.

โœ… Your first step: Next time you see a trading ad, write down one question: 'Compared to what? Did they test it against random picks?'

Try this prompt
I want to test whether a trading rule beats random luck. The rule is: [describe rule]. Help me design a simple test that compares it to 100 randomly timed entries with the same exits and the same costs, split into two time periods. Explain the steps in plain English and tell me what result would mean 'no edge'. Do not tell me whether to trade it. Stop after the test design.

Investor.gov: Researching investments โ†—

Survivorship bias: you only see the winners

You mostly hear about the winners, because the losers quietly disappear.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Ten newsletter writers each make bold predictions. Eight are wrong and quietly stop publishing. The two who got lucky now advertise 'proven results.' Looking only at the survivors, it seems like newsletters work.

Funds, newsletters and traders that failed tend to disappear, so the ones still around look better than the whole group really did. A guru who made ten loud calls and got two right will only advertise the two. Ask for every call or trade, including the losers, with dates.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to list what's missing from a track record: closed accounts, deleted calls, the time period chosen, and fees left out.

โœ… Your first step: Ask any seller for a list of ALL their past calls with dates, including the losers, and see if they will give it to you.

Investor.gov: Researching investments โ†—

Verify the track record and the person

Before you trust anyone with your money, look them up for free in the government's databases.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Carol meets 'an advisor' on social media who promises 30% a year. She types his name into FINRA BrokerCheck and the SEC's adviser search and finds nothing, or finds complaints. A real registered professional shows up there with their history. A screenshot of profits proves nothing.

A screenshot of profits proves nothing. Real verification means statements from a third-party broker, audited results, or a public record you can check yourself. Also check the person: anyone giving investment advice for pay or selling securities usually must be registered (with the SEC, their state, FINRA, or for futures and forex, the CFTC/NFA), and you can look them up for free.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can turn a sales page into a checklist of claims you need to verify, and tell you which public database to check each one in.

โœ… Your first step: Type the name of anyone who has given you money advice into BrokerCheck (brokercheck.finra.org) and read what comes up.

Try this prompt
Below is a sales page for an investing product. List every factual claim it makes (returns, years, credentials, number of users). For each, say what evidence would prove it and which free public lookup could check it (for example SEC adviser search, FINRA BrokerCheck, NFA BASIC). Do not give investment advice or say whether to buy. Stop after the table. [paste page]

SEC Investment Adviser Public Disclosure โ†— ยท FINRA BrokerCheck โ†— ยท NFA BASIC (futures and forex firms) โ†— ยท CFTC: Check a registration โ†—

The payment test: how they get paid tells you what they sold

How someone gets paid tells you what they are really selling you.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Program A charges $20 a month for a tool Dave runs himself, win or lose. Program B is 'free' but takes 30% of any profits. Program B only wins when Dave's account goes up, so it is really selling returns, and that kind of deal usually requires a registered professional. Ask each one: 'How do you get paid in a month when I lose money?'

This is the sharpest test I know. If someone charges a flat price for a tool you run yourself, they sold you a tool. If they take a share of your profits or a percentage of your money, they are really selling you results (returns), whatever the marketing says. Neither is automatically bad, but taking a cut of profits or managing your money usually requires registration, and it changes their incentives. Ask: do they make money when I make money, when I lose money, or either way?

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Paste the pricing page and ask AI to explain exactly when and how the seller gets paid, including what happens to fees in a losing month.

โœ… Your first step: Find the pricing page of any investing app or service you use and write down, in one sentence, exactly how they make money from you.

Investor.gov: Investment adviser โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Working with an investment professional โ†—

Paid courses often sell free ideas

Many expensive trading courses are selling ideas you can learn for free.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Gary watches a free webinar that ends with a $2,000 course offer and a countdown timer. He asks AI to write out the actual rules in five bullet points. The rules turn out to be 'buy when the price is above its average, sell when it falls below,' which is taught free in many places. The timer was the real product.

I once reviewed a slick trading webinar that ended in an expensive course pitch. When I pulled out the actual rules, they were basic trend-following ideas that are taught free all over the internet. The packaging, urgency and testimonials were what cost money. Before you pay, write down the method in one paragraph and search whether it's already public.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to strip the hype from a webinar transcript and write the bare rules in five bullets, then ask whether those rules are widely published.

โœ… Your first step: Paste the description of any course you've been pitched into an AI chat and ask: 'What are the actual rules here, in five bullets?'

Try this prompt
Here is a transcript of an investing webinar: [paste]. Remove all testimonials, urgency and hype. Write the actual trading or investing rules in 5 bullets or fewer. Then tell me if these rules are commonly taught elsewhere, and list the sales pressure tactics used. Do not give investment advice. Stop after those three parts.

Trading systems and bots: the traps

Trading robots and 'copy my trades' services are sold as easy, hands-off income. Some work for a while. The common designs have traps that hide risk until it's too late.

Grid bots and hidden losses

A grid bot can show almost all winning trades while hiding big losses in trades it never closes.

๐Ÿ“– Example

A bot shows Linda 99 winning trades out of 100, each earning $10, so the closed-trade total says +$990. But the one losing trade is still open and is down $3,000. Her 'balance' looks great; her 'equity' (what the account is really worth right now) is about $2,000 lower than she started.

A grid bot places buy and sell orders at regular steps. It closes small winners often, so its win rate can look near perfect. The catch: losing positions are often never closed. They sit open as 'floating' losses that don't show up in the closed-trade results. In one system I studied, the closed trades looked like almost all winners while a large pile of unrealized losses sat underneath. Always ask for the equity curve (what the account is worth with open trades counted), not just the balance or win rate.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can explain the difference between balance and equity on a statement you paste, and flag when open losses are large compared to closed profits.

โœ… Your first step: If you use any trading app, find the two numbers called 'balance' and 'equity' and write down the difference.

Try this prompt
Here is an account report from a trading bot (I removed account numbers): [paste]. Explain in plain English the difference between balance and equity here, how large the open (floating) losses are compared to closed profits, and the largest drop in equity. Do not tell me whether to keep using it. Stop after the explanation.

CFTC: AI trading bots advisory โ†—

Martingale: doubling down until it breaks

Martingale means doubling your bet after every loss, which wins small most of the time and then loses huge.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Joe bets $10 and loses, so he bets $20, then $40, then $80, then $160. Each win earns back the losses plus $10. But after seven losses in a row he must bet $1,280 just to win $10, and if he runs out of money first, he loses everything at once.

Martingale means making the next bet bigger after each loss, hoping one win recovers everything. It works most of the time, which is exactly what makes it dangerous. One long losing streak or one strong trend can wipe out months of small wins at once. If a system 'adds to losers' with growing size, you're looking at a version of this.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to simulate a doubling-down rule with made-up numbers and show what one long losing streak does to the account.

โœ… Your first step: Ask any bot seller in writing: 'Does your system ever increase position size after a loss?'

Copy-trading: you copy the fees too

Copy-trading means your account automatically copies someone else's trades, including their mistakes, plus extra fees.

๐Ÿ“– Example

A leader's trades make 10% in a year. Pat's account copies them, but her prices are a little worse because of delays. Then she pays a monthly fee and a share of profits. She ends up near zero or behind, even though the leader's headline number looked great.

Copy-trading lets your account mirror someone else's trades. You inherit their risk, plus delays, slightly worse prices on each trade, subscription fees and sometimes profit-share fees. When I copied a system, the trades themselves showed a profit, but after the fees I was behind. Always compare your results after every fee, not the leader's headline number.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can build a simple fee-adjusted comparison: the leader's return, your return before fees, and your return after every fee.

โœ… Your first step: Add up every fee you'd pay for a copy-trading service for one year before you sign up.

CFTC: Learn and protect advisories โ†—

A system can work until the market changes

A system that works in calm markets can break when markets suddenly change direction.

๐Ÿ“– Example

A bot makes small steady money for a year while prices bounce up and down in a range. Then prices start falling hard every week for months. The same rules that earned $50 a week now lose $500 a week. The backtest never covered a market like that.

Strategies that make money when prices bounce up and down in a range tend to get hurt when markets start trending hard, and the reverse is also true. A backtest from a calm period says little about a wild one. Ask what happened to the system during big market shocks, and how far it fell at its worst point.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to list the major market shocks in a system's backtest period and whether the results cover them. If the test skips them, that's a gap.

โœ… Your first step: Ask any system seller: 'Show me how it did in March 2020' (a sudden crash everyone remembers).

Forex and leverage multiply everything

Leverage means trading with borrowed money, so small moves turn into big gains or big losses.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Ed puts in $1,000 and trades as if he had $50,000, which is 50-to-1 leverage. A 1% move in his favor makes him $500. A 2% move against him wipes out his whole $1,000. On top of that, holding trades overnight costs a daily fee that quietly adds up.

Many bots trade currencies or futures with leverage, meaning small price moves create big gains or losses. Overnight financing charges can quietly eat a large share of profits on positions held for a long time. Retail forex and futures firms should be registered, and you can check them with the NFA.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can explain a broker's overnight fee table (sometimes called swap or financing) and estimate what holding a position for a month would cost using numbers you give it.

โœ… Your first step: Look up any forex or futures firm you've heard of in the NFA's free BASIC search (nfa.futures.org/basicnet).

NFA BASIC lookup โ†—

Reading the macro (as context, not a crystal ball)

A few big-picture measures can tell you whether the stock market looks expensive or overheated. They are bad at telling you when anything will happen, so treat them like a weather report, not an alarm clock.

Shiller CAPE: is the market pricey?

CAPE is a way of asking whether stocks are cheap or expensive compared to what companies have earned over ten years.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Think of buying a small business. Paying 15 times its yearly profit is more normal; paying 35 times means you're expecting a lot of growth. CAPE does that math for the whole stock market using ten years of earnings. A high number suggests lower returns ahead on average, but it can stay high for years, so it's not a timing tool.

CAPE compares stock prices to the average of ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings, which evens out the good and bad years. A high reading means stocks are expensive compared to their history. Markets have stayed expensive for years, so it's a poor timing tool, but it can help you set realistic expectations.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to explain what a current CAPE reading means historically and, just as important, the known criticisms of the measure.

โœ… Your first step: Visit multpl.com/shiller-pe and look at today's number compared with the long-run average line.

Robert Shiller's online data (Yale) โ†— ยท Shiller Data โ†— ยท Investor.gov: P/E ratio โ†—

Margin debt: how much is borrowed?

Margin debt is money people borrow from their brokers to buy stocks, and lots of it can make crashes worse.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Jim buys $10,000 of stock using $5,000 of his own money and $5,000 borrowed from his broker. If the stock drops 30% to $7,000, his share is only $2,000, and the broker may demand more cash or sell his shares. When lots of people get that call at once, forced selling can push prices down faster.

Margin debt is money investors borrow from brokers to buy securities. FINRA publishes monthly totals. When borrowing rises quickly it can signal heavy speculation, and when prices fall, margin calls can force selling that makes drops worse. In my own charts, margin debt and market valuations have tended to rise and fall together.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can read the FINRA margin table you download and describe the trend in plain words, like 'up X% over 12 months', without predicting the market.

โœ… Your first step: Find FINRA's 'Margin Statistics' page and look at whether the most recent total is higher or lower than a year earlier.

FINRA: Margin statistics โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Margin account โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Margin call โ†—

Interest rates and liquidity

When interest rates go up, borrowing costs more and safe savings pay more, which often weighs on risky investments.

๐Ÿ“– Example

When a savings account or Treasury bill pays a made-up 5%, fewer people need to take big risks to earn a return. A company that depends on borrowing now pays more interest, leaving less profit. That's why many 'hot' stocks can fall together when rates rise, even though they look different.

When interest rates rise, safe investments pay more, borrowing costs more, and risky assets often get hit, especially companies that need to borrow to survive. 'Liquidity' loosely means how much money is flowing around the system, which central bank policy affects. Many hot stocks can turn out to be the same bet on rates.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to explain how a rate change typically affects different kinds of investments, and which of your holdings depend on cheap borrowing.

โœ… Your first step: Look at your own accounts and note which ones pay interest and what rate they pay today.

Federal Reserve: Open market operations โ†—

Michael Howell's liquidity lens

Michael Howell's idea is that how much money is flowing around the world's financial system moves markets more than the daily news.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Picture the financial system as a bathtub. Central banks and lenders turn the tap up (more money and credit) or down. When the water level rises, prices of stocks and other assets tend to float up; when it drains, they tend to sink. Howell tracks the water level, and critics point out it's hard to measure and doesn't tell you the exact day of a turn.

Michael Howell, who runs the research firm CrossBorder Capital and writes the public Capital Wars newsletter, argues that the amount of money and credit flowing through the world's financial system, which he calls global liquidity, drives asset prices more than economic news does. The pieces include central bank balance sheets (are they adding money or pulling it out?), how easily banks and other lenders hand out loans, and money moving across borders. His key point: the world carries so much debt that it constantly needs to refinance, so the supply of liquidity matters as much as interest rates. He describes liquidity as moving in multi-year cycles. The counter-lens: liquidity is hard to measure, his own measure is private (you can't fully check it), and a framework that explains the past well still can't tell you the date of the next turn.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to explain the public pieces you can check yourself, like the Federal Reserve's weekly balance sheet, and to argue both sides of whether liquidity or earnings matter more.

โœ… Your first step: Open the Federal Reserve's 'Recent balance sheet trends' page and look at whether the line has been going up or down lately.

Try this prompt
Explain the 'global liquidity' framework for markets in plain English: what it includes, how central bank balance sheets fit in, why refinancing debt matters, and the main criticisms. Then show me where to find the Federal Reserve's own weekly balance sheet data. Do not make market predictions or give investment advice. Stop after the explanation and the data source.

Capital Wars (Michael Howell's public Substack) โ†— ยท Federal Reserve: Recent balance sheet trends โ†— ยท Federal Reserve H.4.1 weekly balance sheet release โ†—

Trend rules are research signals, not orders

A trend rule simply checks whether a price is above or below its recent average, as a warning light, not a command.

๐Ÿ“– Example

The average price of a fund over the last 150 days is $100. Today it trades at $110, so it's 'above the line.' If it falls to $95, the rule flashes a warning. Sometimes that warning comes before a big drop; sometimes the price bounces right back, which is called a false alarm.

A common trend-following rule watches whether a price is above or below its average over the last 50 or 150 days, and some people rank market sectors by recent strength to see where money is flowing. I built a simple dashboard like this to see where things stand at a glance. It's useful context. It's not a guarantee, it gives false alarms when prices zig-zag, and it's not advice.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can calculate moving averages from a price file you download and explain what the rule would have said in the past, including the times it was wrong.

โœ… Your first step: Pull up a free chart of an index fund you know and turn on the '150-day moving average' line to see where the price sits.

Try this prompt
I'm attaching daily closing prices for [ticker or index]. Calculate the 50-day and 150-day moving averages and list every time the price crossed below the 150-day line in this period. For each, say what happened over the next 3 months. Include the false alarms. This is research only; do not recommend trades. Stop after the table and a 3-sentence summary.

Finding big long-term winners (and arguing against yourself)

Some investors hunt for stocks that could grow many times over. Most of those bets miss, so having careful rules matters more than the picks themselves.

A long-shot checklist

This checklist is a list of questions some investors use to look for the rare stock that could grow many times over.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Kim looks at a hated company whose stock fell 90%. She checks: did it get a new, proven leader? Is one key number, like profit per sale, finally improving? Can it pay its debts long enough to turn around? Two of three answers are 'yes,' so she keeps it on a watch list. Most stocks like this never recover, so a good score just means 'worth more homework.'

Investors who chase huge winners often look for a similar pattern: a company the market has written off, a business that is becoming something different from what people think, a strong new leader with a track record, one key number (like profit per unit) that is starting to improve, and a balance sheet that can survive until the turnaround. They also size the payoff: big if right, limited loss if wrong.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to score a company on each checklist item using only facts from its filings and earnings calls, citing where each fact came from.

โœ… Your first step: Pick one company you're curious about and write the six checklist questions at the top of a page, with no answers yet.

Try this prompt
Score [company] 0-2 on each: (1) written off by the market, (2) becoming something different than it's priced as, (3) proven leadership, (4) one key metric starting to turn, (5) debt it can survive, (6) a dated event that would prove the idea wrong. Use only facts from the filings or transcripts I paste, and cite each one. Then argue the strongest case AGAINST it. Do not tell me to buy or sell. Stop after the scores and the counter-case. [paste]

Always name your kill switch

A kill switch is the result, decided ahead of time, that would tell you your idea was wrong.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Before buying, Ray writes: 'If the company's profit per sale hasn't improved by its next two quarterly reports, I was wrong.' Six months later he checks. If it didn't improve, he knows his reason for owning it is gone, instead of making up a new excuse.

The most useful habit from good long-shot investors: before you buy, write down the specific, dated result that would prove you wrong. 'If profit per unit hasn't improved by the next two earnings reports, my reason for owning it is broken.' If you can't name it, you don't have a real reason (a thesis), you have a hope.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can help you turn a vague belief into a testable statement with a date, and remind you what to check on that date.

โœ… Your first step: For anything you own, write one sentence: 'I would admit I'm wrong about this if ___ happens by ___ (date).'

The counter-checklist

The counter-checklist makes you argue against your own favorite idea before you put money in.

๐Ÿ“– Example

A popular online investor hypes a beaten-down stock, and Jen gets excited. She asks: does he sell a paid subscription? Is the company issuing lots of new shares, shrinking her slice? Are her other three 'different' stocks really all hurt by the same thing, high interest rates? Two answers worry her, so she shrinks her plan.

Most written-off stocks stay written off. Ask: does the comparison to a past winner actually hold, or only partly? Is the person pitching it selling a subscription or pumping a crowd? Is the company printing lots of new shares (dilution), shrinking your slice? Are your 'different' picks really one bet on interest rates or credit? A loud public pitch is marketing plus analysis, not analysis alone.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to play the short-seller: the strongest honest argument for why this stock falls further.

โœ… Your first step: Ask an AI: 'Give me the strongest honest case for why [a stock you like] keeps falling.'

Investor.gov: Pump-and-dump schemes โ†—

Drawdowns are the price of admission

Even stocks that became huge winners often lost half their value along the way, sometimes more than once.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Imagine putting $1,000 in a stock that eventually grew 20 times over 10 years. Along the way it dropped to $500, climbed back, and dropped again. Most people would have sold during one of those drops. That's why many people keep long-shot bets to a small slice of their money.

Stocks that went up hugely over time often fell 30% to 60% along the way, sometimes more than once. If a deep drop would make you sell, a long-shot strategy may not fit you. Many people keep long shots to a small slice of their money for exactly this reason.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can pull the biggest historical drops from a price file you give it, so you see what holding through it would have felt like.

โœ… Your first step: Ask yourself honestly: if $1,000 became $500 next month, would I sell? Write the answer down.

Investor.gov: Stocks โ†—

Using AI as your analyst

AI is great at reading, summarizing and arguing both sides. It is bad at predicting prices and can confidently make things up. Use it to do your homework faster, and always check the original source.

Build a 'thinker persona' to argue with

You can ask AI to argue with your idea the way a well-known investor would, as long as it sticks to what that person has actually said in public.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Mike pastes a few public interviews of a famous investor into an AI and asks it to react to his idea 'as that investor's framework would,' citing which interview each point comes from. Then he asks a second persona, a famous skeptic, to argue back. He gets a debate in five minutes instead of an echo chamber.

One technique I use: give the AI a sourced summary of how a well-known investor publicly reasons (their stated framework, their past calls, their dated sources), and tell it to answer the way that framework would, citing the sources and admitting when the person hasn't addressed something. Then ask it to argue with your idea. It's an emulation, not the real person, and the rule is 'cite or say you don't know.'

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: The persona works best when you also build an opposite persona and make them debate, so you hear both sides. For basics on giving an AI a role and sources, see Your AI toolkit (fixkitai.com/learn/ai/).

โœ… Your first step: Pick one investor you respect and save links to two of their public interviews you could paste into an AI later.

Try this prompt
Using only the public interviews and writings I paste below, summarize [investor]'s framework in 5 bullets with sources. Then, answering as an emulation of that framework (not the real person), react to my idea: [idea]. Cite which source each point comes from. If the sources don't cover it, say so. Do not give personal investment advice or tell me to buy or sell. Stop after the reaction. [paste sources]

Read the 10-K so you don't have to read all 100 pages

A 10-K is a company's big yearly report to the government, and AI can help you find the important parts fast.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Every public US company files a 10-K with the SEC, and anyone can read it free on the SEC's EDGAR website. Nina downloads a company's 'Risk Factors' section for this year and last year and asks AI what's new. In two minutes she learns about a new lawsuit buried on page 40.

A 10-K is a public company's annual report filed with the SEC. It includes the business description, risk factors, financial statements and management's discussion. It's free on the SEC's EDGAR website. AI can summarize it, but it should quote the page or section for every claim so you can check.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Paste the risk factors and management discussion sections and ask what changed from last year.

โœ… Your first step: Search the company name plus '10-K' and open the Risk Factors section of any company you own or use.

Try this prompt
Below are the Risk Factors and MD&A (management's discussion of results) sections from [company]'s 10-K for [year] and the prior year. List what's new, what was removed, and what got more serious. Quote the section for each point. Do not give an opinion on the stock or investment advice. Stop after the list. [paste]

Investor.gov: Form 10-K โ†—

Earnings-call summaries

Every few months, company bosses explain their results on a phone call, and AI can boil an hour-long call down to the key points.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Leo pastes the written transcript of a company's quarterly call into an AI. It pulls out the five most important numbers, what bosses expect next, and the tough questions analysts asked. It also flags one question the CEO dodged, which turns out to be the most useful clue.

On earnings calls, management talks about results and analysts ask questions. The questions often reveal what professionals are worried about. AI can turn a long transcript into the few numbers that matter and the topics management dodged.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask for the key numbers, the guidance, the tough questions, and any answers that were vague.

โœ… Your first step: Find the 'Investor Relations' page of a company you know and look for the latest 'earnings call' or 'webcast' link.

Try this prompt
Here is an earnings call transcript: [paste]. Give me: (1) the 5 most important numbers, (2) any forward guidance, (3) the three toughest analyst questions and how management answered, (4) any answers that seemed evasive. Quote the transcript. No stock opinion or advice. Stop after these four parts.

Bull vs. bear debate

Ask AI for the best argument for AND against an idea, so you don't only hear what you want to hear.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Before buying a fund, Sue asks AI for the three strongest reasons to own it and the three strongest reasons not to. Then she asks which side used more facts and which used more stories. The 'against' list includes a high fee she hadn't noticed.

Ask the AI to write the strongest case for and the strongest case against, then to name the one fact that would settle the argument. This breaks the habit of only reading things that agree with you.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Run the debate, then ask AI which side relied more on facts versus stories.

โœ… Your first step: Ask an AI: 'Give me three reasons for and three reasons against [an investment you've been thinking about].'

AI's limits and AI-themed scams

AI can make up facts that sound real, and scammers use the word 'AI' to sell fake trading programs.

๐Ÿ“– Example

An ad promises an 'AI trading robot' that makes 5% a week. Government agencies like the SEC and CFTC have warned that no AI can guarantee profits and that 'AI' is a popular scam label. Separately, Ken's AI chatbot once quoted a company number that wasn't in the real report, so he now checks every number against the source.

AI tools can invent numbers, quotes and sources. Regulators also warn that scammers use 'AI-powered' claims to sell trading programs that promise big returns. Treat any 'AI picks guaranteed winners' pitch as a red flag, and verify every AI-produced fact against the original document.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask the AI to list which of its claims it's unsure about and where you should double-check them.

โœ… Your first step: Read the short Investor.gov alert on artificial intelligence and investment fraud (about five minutes).

Investor.gov: Artificial intelligence and investment fraud โ†— ยท CFTC: AI trading bots advisory โ†—

ETFs, options, income funds and other wrappers

A 'wrapper' is the package an investment comes in, like a fund, an ETF or an options contract. The same stocks can come in very different packages with very different costs and risks.

ETFs

An ETF is a basket of investments you can buy and sell like a single stock.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Dan buys one share of an S&P 500 ETF like VOO or SPY and instantly owns a sliver of about 500 companies. (These are examples, not recommendations.) He can sell it any time the market is open. But not all ETFs are simple: some hold just a few companies or use borrowed money, so he reads what's inside before buying.

An exchange-traded fund holds a basket of investments and trades on an exchange like a stock during the day. Many track an index cheaply, but some are narrow, complex or expensive. Read what it holds and what it costs, not just the name.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can compare two ETFs side by side from their fact sheets: holdings overlap, fees and how concentrated they are.

โœ… Your first step: Look up any ETF ticker you've heard of on its maker's website and find its top 10 holdings.

Investor.gov: Exchange-traded fund (ETF) โ†— ยท FINRA: Exchange-traded funds and products โ†—

Leveraged and inverse ETFs

Leveraged ETFs try to move two or three times as much as the market in a single day, which can go very wrong if you hold them for long.

๐Ÿ“– Example

A well-known example is ProShares' TQQQ, which aims for three times the daily move of the Nasdaq-100. (These are examples, not recommendations.) Say an index drops 10% one day and rises 10% the next. The index ends about 1% down, but a 3x fund ends about 9% down. Over weeks of up-and-down days, that gap grows.

These try to deliver a multiple (like 2x) or the opposite of an index's daily move. Because they reset every day, results over weeks or months can drift a long way from what you'd expect, especially in choppy markets. They are generally built for short-term trading, so read the fund's own prospectus before touching one.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Ask AI to show, with a made-up up-and-down price path, how daily resetting causes the long-run result to drift.

โœ… Your first step: If you own any fund with '2x,' '3x,' 'Ultra' or 'Inverse' in its name, open its fact sheet and read the first warning paragraph.

FINRA: Exchange-traded funds and products โ†—

Options basics: calls, puts, strike and premium

An option is a contract that lets you buy or sell a stock at a set price before a set date, for a fee.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Here's a cash-secured put with made-up numbers. A stock trades at $50. Jane sets aside $4,500 and sells a put that promises to buy 100 shares at $45 within a month, and she's paid $100 up front (the premium). If the stock stays above $45, she keeps the $100. If it falls to $40, she must buy 100 shares at $45, paying $4,500 for shares now worth $4,000, so she's down $400 after counting the $100 she collected.

An option is a contract. A call gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy shares at a set price (the strike) by a set date. A put gives the right to sell. The buyer pays a price called the premium; the seller collects it and takes on the obligation to buy or sell if the contract is assigned (meaning they're called on to actually do it). Buyers can lose everything they paid. Some selling strategies, like selling calls on stock you don't own, can lose far more than you put in. Your broker has to approve your account for a specific options level, and you should read the risk disclosure document (Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options) your firm provides.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: AI can draw a simple profit-and-loss table for an option strategy at different prices, so you see the worst case before anything else.

โœ… Your first step: Read the short 'What is an option?' page from the Options Industry Council (optionseducation.org).

Try this prompt
Explain this options strategy in plain English: [strategy]. Make a table of profit or loss at 5 different prices on the expiration date, and state the maximum possible loss. Educational only; do not recommend the trade. Stop after the table and max loss.

FINRA: Options โ†— ยท Options Industry Council: What is an option? โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Options โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Premium โ†—

Mutual funds, loads and share classes

A mutual fund pools many people's money, and some charge sales fees that are easy to miss.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Bob invests $10,000 in a fund with a 5% front-end sales load. Only $9,500 actually gets invested; $500 goes to the sales commission right away. Another version of the same fund may have no load but a higher yearly fee, so the cheapest choice depends on how long he holds it.

Mutual funds pool money and price once a day. Some charge a sales load (a commission when you buy or sell) and ongoing 12b-1 marketing fees. The same fund can come in several versions (share classes) with different fees.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Paste the fee table from a fund prospectus and ask AI to explain each fee and which share class costs least over your time frame.

โœ… Your first step: Find the fee table in the first few pages of any mutual fund you own and circle anything called 'load' or '12b-1.'

Investor.gov: Load โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Mutual funds and ETFs โ†—

Covered calls and option-income ETFs

A covered call means you rent out the chance to sell your shares at a higher price in exchange for a little cash now.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Ann owns 100 shares at $50 and sells a call that lets someone buy them at $55 within a month for $100. If the stock stays under $55, she keeps her shares and the $100. If it jumps to $70, she has to sell at $55 and misses the extra $15 a share. If it falls to $40, the $100 barely helps. Funds such as JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) and Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) use versions of this strategy. (These are examples, not recommendations.) Check their current payouts and total returns on their own websites.

A covered call means you own shares and sell someone else the right to buy them from you at a higher price. You collect the premium as income. The trade-off: if the stock rockets past the strike, your gain is capped, but if the stock falls, you still take almost the whole drop. Option-income ETFs run this strategy (or versions of it) for you and often advertise very high yields. A high payout is not the same as a high return. Some of the payout can be your own money handed back (return of capital), the share price can shrink over time, and the tax treatment of distributions varies. Judge them on total return, after fees, through a full down market.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Paste an income fund's fact sheet and distribution history and ask AI to separate the yield from the total return, and to explain where the payout comes from.

โœ… Your first step: Look up one option-income fund's website and compare its 'distribution rate' to its 'total return' over the longest period shown.

Try this prompt
I'm pasting the fact sheet and distribution notices for an option-income fund [paste]. In plain English explain: (1) the options strategy it uses, (2) what caps its upside, (3) how much of recent distributions the fund says was income vs. return of capital, (4) its expense ratio, (5) its total return vs. the index it writes options on, if listed. Do not say whether to buy it, and do not give tax or investment advice. Stop after these five points.

FINRA: Options โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Yield โ†— ยท Investor.gov: Dividend โ†— ยท IRS Publication 550: Investment income and expenses โ†—

If you want to trade options yourself

If you want to trade options yourself, learn first, practice with pretend money, and start with trades where you know your worst case.

๐Ÿ“– Example

Raj spends a month on free lessons, then practices in his broker's paper-trading simulator, which many big brokers offer. His first real trade is a 'defined-risk' spread: he sells one put for $1.00 and buys a cheaper, lower put for $0.40, so he collects $60 and his worst possible loss is known before he starts. He keeps each trade small enough that losing it wouldn't hurt.

Learn before you earn. Start with free education (the Options Industry Council and good teachers who show their trades manually, step by step). Then paper trade, meaning practice with fake money in your broker's simulator, for a while before risking real dollars. When you do start, many educators teach defined-risk spreads first, where you buy one option and sell another so your maximum loss is known before you enter. Understand assignment: if you sell an option, you can be required to buy or sell shares, sometimes before expiration on US stock options, and your account needs the cash or shares to handle it. Options that expire the same day (called 0DTE) move fast and can wipe out a position in hours. Keep each trade small enough that losing it doesn't hurt.

๐Ÿค– How AI helps: Before any trade, have AI write out the max profit, max loss, break-even and what happens if you're assigned, then check those numbers yourself in your broker's tools.

โœ… Your first step: Check whether your broker offers a paper-trading (practice) account, and write down where to find it.

Try this prompt
Explain this options trade I'm considering on paper only: [describe legs, strikes, expiration, premium]. Give me max profit, max loss, break-even, what happens at expiration at 5 different prices, and what happens if the short leg is assigned early. Educational only; do not recommend the trade or give personal investment advice. Stop after the table and the assignment explanation.

FINRA: Options (approval levels and assignment) โ†— ยท Options Industry Council โ†— ยท Options With Ryan (manual options education) โ†—

Your options at a glance

OptionWhat it isGood forWatch out
Broad index fundA fund that owns a whole market index for a low fee.Long-term savers who want market returns without picking stocks.You get all of the market's drops too; check the expense ratio.
Actively managed fundA fund where managers pick investments to try to beat the market.People who believe in a specific manager's process and accept higher fees.Higher fees, and many active funds trail their index over long periods.
Individual stocksOwning shares of specific companies directly.People willing to read filings and accept that one company can fall a lot.Concentration risk; single companies can lose most or all of their value.
ETFsBaskets of investments that trade like a stock during the day.Low-cost diversification and flexible trading.Some are narrow, leveraged or complex; the name can hide what's inside.
OptionsContracts to buy or sell at a set price by a set date.Experienced investors protecting a position or making a bet with a known limit.Can expire worthless; some strategies can lose more than you invested.
Covered-call / option-income ETFsFunds that sell options on stocks or an index to generate a high monthly payout.Income-focused investors who accept capped upside in exchange for regular distributions.High yield isn't high return; upside is capped, downside isn't, and payouts can include return of capital.
Trading options yourselfBuying and selling option contracts in your own account.People who've studied, paper traded and use small, defined-risk positions.Assignment, leverage and fast time decay; some strategies can lose more than you invested.
Financial advisor (fiduciary)A professional legally required to put your interests first when advising you.People who want a plan and someone to keep them on track.Fees (often a percentage of assets) compound; check registration and disciplinary history.
Broker or salesperson (not always a fiduciary)A professional who sells investment products, often paid by commission.Executing specific transactions you already understand.Incentives can favor higher-commission products; ask how they are paid.
Robo-advisorAn online service that builds and rebalances a portfolio automatically.Hands-off investors who want low cost and simple automation.Limited personal advice; understand the fees and how it picks your mix.
Signal service or newsletterA paid feed of trade ideas or buy/sell calls.Learning how others think, if the record is fully verifiable.Unverifiable track records, survivorship bias, and calls that may have no edge over random.
Trading bot (sometimes called an 'expert advisor')Software that places trades automatically by set rules.People who can test it themselves, including against random entries and with all costs.Hidden floating losses, martingale sizing, leverage and profit-share fees.
Copy-tradingYour account automatically mirrors another trader's trades.Small experiments with money you can afford to lose.You copy their risk plus delays, different prices and stacked fees.
DIY research tools (flat fee)Software or data you pay for once or monthly and use yourself.People who want to check claims and do their own homework.A tool doesn't create an edge; you still need to test ideas honestly.

๐Ÿšฉ Red flags

  • Guaranteed returns or 'can't lose' language.
  • Near-perfect win rates with no chart showing what the account is really worth with open losses counted.
  • Bots or programs that take a share of your profits but aren't registered.
  • Track records shown only as screenshots, with no third-party statements.
  • Pressure to act now: countdown timers, 'only 3 spots left', webinar-only discounts.
  • Systems that add bigger positions after losses (martingale or 'averaging down' by design).
  • 'AI-powered' trading that promises high monthly income.
  • Being asked to send crypto or wire money to a person or app you met online.
  • Someone who isn't listed in SEC, FINRA or NFA databases but is giving paid advice or managing money.
  • Testimonials and lifestyle photos instead of methods and audited numbers.
  • Promoters who hype a small stock loudly and may be selling into the excitement.
  • Fees you can't explain in one sentence after reading the pricing page.

๐Ÿ™‹ Questions to ask a pro

  • Are you a fiduciary at all times when you advise me, and will you put that in writing?
  • How exactly are you paid: flat fee, hourly, percentage of assets, or commissions?
  • What is my total yearly cost in dollars, including fund fees and trading costs?
  • Can I see your Form ADV, Form CRS or BrokerCheck record, and have you had any complaints?
  • How does this plan handle a 30% to 50% market drop?
  • How much of my money should be easy to reach in an emergency before I invest?
  • What are the tax consequences of selling, rebalancing, or the type of account I use?
  • Is this product or strategy registered, and who holds my money (the custodian)?
  • How would you test whether a trading system or signal service has a real edge?
  • What's my overall exposure to one company, one industry, or interest rates?
  • What would make you recommend changing this plan, and how often will we review it?
  • Are there cheaper ways to get similar exposure to what you're recommending?

Plain-English glossary

Index fund
A fund that owns everything in a market index instead of picking stocks.
Expense ratio
The yearly fee a fund charges, as a percentage of your money.
Diversification
Spreading money out so one bad investment can't sink you.
Fiduciary
Someone legally required to act in your best interest.
Null test
Checking whether a strategy beats random choices made under the same rules and costs.
Survivorship bias
Only seeing the winners because the losers disappeared.
Drawdown
How far an account falls from its peak before recovering.
Floating loss
A loss on a trade that's still open and not yet counted as closed.
Martingale
Betting bigger after each loss to win it all back; it can blow up an account.
Leverage
Using borrowed money so gains and losses are bigger.
Margin debt
Money investors borrow from brokers to buy investments.
Shiller CAPE
Stock prices compared to ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings; a measure of how pricey markets are.
Form 10-K
A public company's detailed annual report filed with the SEC.
Option
A contract giving the right to buy or sell at a set price by a set date.
Kill switch (thesis)
A specific, dated result you decide in advance would prove your idea wrong.
Covered call
Selling someone the right to buy shares you already own, for a fee (premium).
Assignment
When an option seller is required to actually buy or sell the shares.
Return of capital
A payout that's partly your own money being handed back, not profit.
Global liquidity
The total flow of money and credit through the world's financial system.
Paper trading
Practicing trades with pretend money in a simulator.

Sources

People I learn from

Where I start

Options education (manual trading)

Markets explained

Macro: global liquidity

Macro interviews

Macro and money

Beginner investing

Retirement income

Trading education

Financial literacy

Macro: debt and credit

Macro explained

Macro: money plumbing

Value investing and macro

Market strategy

Tech and markets

Tech trends

Venture and tech

Company news

Tech stock research

Value investing

Personal finance

Stock research

Finance interviews

Investing interviews

Market commentary

Investing for owners

Trend following

Options education

Quant trading

Retirement trading

Covered calls

ETF research

Market news

Investing education

Precious metals

Dividend income

Income investing

Option-income ETFs

Retirement planning

Long-term investing

Listed because I've learned from them โ€” not endorsements, not sponsors, and they don't know FixKit AI exists (yet).